Boosted volume expected After a rough spring, supplies and quality improve as season moves on. By D

6/9/1995 12:00:00 AM

By Dave Swenson

Boosted volume expected After a rough spring, supplies and quality improve asseason moves on.

By Dave Swenson

Staff Writer

Stone fruit is expected to make a rebound this summer, after heavy rain andhailstorms in March drastically cut supply of early varieties of peaches,plums and nectarines.

Although the California Tree Fruit Agreement recently lowered productionestimates for the season, most industry observers expect increased volume andimproved quality as the season progresses.

Gary Van Sickle, field director with the CTFA, said most growers were gettingbeyond recent quality problems, such as cracking caused by the rain, but saidhail damage would remain through the deal.

``Quality is improving daily,'' agreed Steve Nelson, director of marketing forKings Canyon Fruit Sales Corp., Reedley, Calif. ``But if you got caught by thehail, then your packouts are considerably less than normal.''

F.o.b. prices for a 25-pound carton of 60-64 count peaches were $9-10 the weekof June 5-11, down from $14 in late May. Likewise, f.o.b.s for a 25-poundcarton of 60-64 count nectarines had fallen from $22 late last month to $14-16on June 6.

Several marketing factors are forcing shippers to speculate that a furtherdrop in price is possible as the deal moves through June and into July.

``Prices on peaches and nectarines are seeking a level right now where theretail side can promote them, plus we're facing competition from peaches inthe Southeast,'' Nelson said, noting there should be 1 million boxes ofFlavorcrest peaches packed the week of June 12-18.

Van Sickle said plums were suffering the most because they didn't get theproper pollination early in the season, which was followed by tremendous haildamage.

``The crop estimate was 11.1 million boxes back in April. There hasn't been anew estimate, but obviously it's going to be a lot less than that,'' VanSickle said.

Some industry observers say the loss to the plum crop could reach as much as60 percent of last year's total of 17.3 million boxes.

``Red Beaut, which recently finished, was 30 percent short of what wethought,'' Van Sickle said. ``We're now into Black Beaut and a few SantaRosa's. Once we get into those varieties we'll have a better idea of what toexpect for the season.''

Plum f.o.b prices were remaining firm on June 6 at $34-38 for a 28-poundcarton of size 60s. In comparison, prices last year for a size 4- by-4 were$10-12.

The revised packout figures issued by the CTFA on May 24 estimated theCalifornia peach crop at 15.6 million packages, down from the originalestimate of 16.98 million. The nectarine estimate is 15.5 million packages,down from 16.9 million.

Most of the reductions were made on earlier varieties and were the result ofhigher culls. For peaches, Queencrest will have 675,000 boxes, down from anearly estimate of 838,000. Maycrest is expected to end the season at 350,000boxes, after a previous estimate of 551,000 boxes.

Spring Crest will finish at 400,000 boxes, reduced from 453,000, while SpringLady will have 650,000 boxes, compared to the original estimate of 800,000.

Early-variety nectarines also will see large reductions from earlierestimates. The Mayfire variety finished at 409,000 boxes, down from 550,000.Mayglo is expected to be less than 700,000, after an initial projection of 1million boxes. Meanwhile, May Grand is estimated at 400,000 boxes, down140,000 from earlier estimates.

``These were estimates for the balance of the season and we've been prettyclose to hitting the revised estimates on varieties that are finishing,'' VanSickle said.